tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45913087057817670102012-02-15T23:20:14.148-08:00pnghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01185705118952916838noreply@blogger.comBlogger21100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4591308705781767010.post-30267501878302052492008-10-21T11:48:00.000-07:002008-10-21T11:49:57.267-07:00<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZQ7POBmGyQY/SP4kHj4qgdI/AAAAAAAAAA0/5KY4M7vJ88c/s1600-h/dj_10132008.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259681127125909970" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZQ7POBmGyQY/SP4kHj4qgdI/AAAAAAAAAA0/5KY4M7vJ88c/s320/dj_10132008.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4591308705781767010-3026750187830205249?l=excellent-thoughts2.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>pnghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01185705118952916838noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4591308705781767010.post-20346960908795677952008-07-19T12:39:00.000-07:002008-07-19T13:18:55.714-07:00<a href="http://bp1.blogger.com/_ZQ7POBmGyQY/SIJHY9cCFVI/AAAAAAAAAAk/r-yA68DgoX4/s1600-h/alternate_view.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5224817011837769042" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://bp1.blogger.com/_ZQ7POBmGyQY/SIJHY9cCFVI/AAAAAAAAAAk/r-yA68DgoX4/s320/alternate_view.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><div>See excellent-thoughts.blogspot.com for my previous long term view of the Dow.</div><br /><div>The violation of the trendline drawn from the 1982 low to the 2003 low in the Dow failed a retest in late May. In most circles it is believed that this failure signalled the beginning of a severe downturn. See:</div><div> </div><div></div><div><a href="http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm">http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm</a> </div><div> </div><div>for an example.</div><div></div><div>The extreme bearish sentiment observed at the July 2008 low in the Dow suggests that an important low has formed. I found that by drawing a trendline from the 1976 high to the 2000 high in the Dow and extending a parallel lower trendline from the 1982 low that it afforded exact support for the July 2008 low. This may formed the end of wave 4 from 2000 (see chart), although a triangle wave 4 could extend the correction as long as it does not violate the trendline. </div><div></div><div>If this scenario holds, then wave 5 would likely rise to ~36000 in the next 5-8 years. That would then be followed by a supercycle wave 4 which could be severe and retest Dow 7500.<br /></div><div></div><br /><div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4591308705781767010-2034696090879567795?l=excellent-thoughts2.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>pnghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01185705118952916838noreply@blogger.com0